Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 29.771794 35.408348 41.590869 48.845417 57.093146 66.146614 76.803318
2025-02-09 21.853990 29.423670 38.544945 50.209780 64.584368 81.566618 102.981072
2025-02-16 17.226236 25.574618 36.390175 51.135731 70.389941 94.332283 125.966026
2025-02-23 13.758129 22.289632 34.067295 51.023876 74.254645 104.365975 145.653232
2025-03-02 10.943247 19.271477 31.474753 49.941992 76.352447 111.853529 162.111739
2025-03-09 9.028297 17.179944 29.792865 49.747905 79.377622 120.470582 180.241090
2025-03-16 6.949121 14.397926 26.621139 46.888497 78.173640 122.965293 189.911268
2025-03-23 6.114679 13.554937 26.338063 48.308636 83.227947 134.416032 212.461648
2025-03-30 5.051558 12.080729 24.786483 47.490913 84.719187 140.665831 227.758588
2025-04-06 4.648325 11.790452 25.211465 49.906008 91.343633 154.760944 254.985086
2025-04-13 3.566081 9.887511 22.472776 46.640501 88.564921 154.411891 260.714440
2025-04-20 3.163261 9.358260 22.212839 47.650362 92.805223 164.995600 283.234179
2025-04-27 2.935057 9.253227 22.898391 50.683611 101.085947 183.009831 318.996935
2025-05-04 2.569792 8.745179 22.728381 52.165863 106.912313 197.590288 350.402482
2025-05-11 2.217219 8.170835 22.321229 53.125405 111.848119 210.931140 380.390145
2025-05-18 1.847123 7.434315 21.431466 53.010297 114.796869 221.081233 405.650869
2025-05-25 1.482996 6.587625 20.134847 51.894349 115.770468 227.893834 425.715671
2025-06-01 1.230280 5.995725 19.331006 51.694133 118.398232 237.587601 450.808612
2025-06-08 0.908058 5.022389 17.377192 48.743890 115.459515 237.393931 459.364969
2025-06-15 0.805943 4.820800 17.402041 50.209272 121.284343 252.898314 494.907368
2025-06-22 0.645742 4.308929 16.476522 49.365530 122.379414 259.934829 516.214604
2025-06-29 0.601780 4.284848 16.939812 51.857229 130.454738 279.972951 560.597163
2025-07-06 0.425408 3.534036 15.086311 48.487967 126.048151 276.815550 564.429479